I'm not sure exactly what you are reffering to. If I remember correctly,
you wanted to get some weight off of Elllie.
I rotate my fields so that none of them get down to the "nubs"
That's no good here for me. That's how my horses would injest too much dirt and colic on me. Over grazed pastures can cause your horse to get wormy for one thing and of course expose your horse to dirt and too much manure, so personally I avoid that. Horses are grazers and should be allowed to graze. However I found out the hard way that when it comes to minis, I have to control their exposure it to keep them from becomming obsese. I've got two here that would pork out dangerously if left to graze too much. Well they are porked out too much actually.
Sometimes your darned if you do and darned if you don't with the minis. Drives me nuts. At the beginning of spring, as the grass begins to grow, my horses are only on it like 2 hours per day for fear of founder, then brought into the dry lot and fed hay.
During summertime, I still control the hours of grazing until about 4 hours per day because then, the grass has taken hold and is growing constantly at a rapid rate. Again, recipe for founder and big pot bellies.
Now we are getting into autum. The horses can stay out on what I have here all day long. It's still growing out there but not thick and lush as before. It's going to be dwindling off now.
Horses of course perfer grass, something nice and green to hay. And grass of course is good for their little systems and has mositure in it too. I don't know what your set-up is, but I would still want grass for my horse available daily until of course winter sets in and you can't have any. Then its hay hay hay all the way and plenty of it to keep them warm.
I don't think you're going to find a perfect answer.
I think you'll have to just keep standing back and taking a good look at Ellie and see what she is doing in the weight department and keep on making amends as her body changes. Blubber is just no good.
Keep in mind, I'm no expert at anything. I just keep an eye out on everyone's weight and adjust the times of exposure to grass as needed and do remember that horses still are meant to be grazers.