I found this one while going backwards thru forum posts, LOL, and had to answer!
I've had many hilarious and sometimes "hair raising" experiences with breeding a Shetland stallion to larger mares. We've gotten some VERY nice xbred pony foals - some have been heart ponies, some have been driving ponies for pleasure and others have been top notch competitive ponies in the H/J and CDE circuits and showing as 1/2 Arabians within AHA. Our first stallion was 45 1/4" tall (recently euthanized after 17 wonderful years in his company) and was HAND BRED to mares as large as 16.3 hh. Sorry to say that the two largest mares bred to him never produced live foals - one was later determined to be not able to carry to term due to scarred uterus and the other got in foal 3 times only to lose the foals right around the 90 day mark regardless of vet intervention (a repro vet owned her and was VERY disappointed)...
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Our own mares were never extremely large (largest was 14.3 hh), but had much larger parentage behind them... These are purebred Arabians, crossbred Arabians and grade mares. The smallest purebred to produce a foal was 13.3 hh herself and her dam wasn't much larger (but sire was 15.2, so thought we'd get a foal close to the Arab mares' size...) That particular colt is a gelding that will be 4 on Oct 17, 2012. He currently stands 12.3 hh (2" shorter than your mare). I hope that he will do what our other 1/2 Arab/Shetl did - and "jump" to about 13 +, but we've had a couple of others that just didn't make it past the 12.3 hh mark. To produce him, his dam was stood in the corner of the barn alongside the stall walls. She was hand held after she was prepared, a 6" solid ramp (pallet out of 2x6) set behind her, AJ stepped up on the ramp after he was prepared and had visited w/ her, and was given a hand. He finished, dismounted & was turned back into his pen while she was unwrapped and also turned out. That was Thanksgiving weekend 2007. Our daughter was thrilled to get "her baby" just 16 days after her 16th Bday.
Another arabian mare, 14.1 hh and very petite was also live covered using the ramp. She was very strong in season & stood quietly in the open w/ the ramp behind her, he mounted from "his" ramp, covered her, dismounted and she was vet checked in foal 30 days later. That colt got to be 14.1 hh just like his dam! A HUGE SURPRISE - as her other purebred Arabian foals have been tiny & petite like herself - different stallions.
The 14.3 hh Arab mare with larger parents behind her on both sides of her pedigree surprised us again w/ 2 fillies that were much smaller than we expected at maturity. They both matured right about 12.3 (no man's land in H/J circuits, LOL, somewhat disappointing.).
We had one "grade" mare produce 5 foals by him. 4 ended up maturing between 13 & 13.2, the last was deceased at 2 months. She was also 13.3 and we determined her to be a small gaited horse or gaited horse cross. 2 of her foals were gaited and were ridden for years by small, older adults. The other two became all around riding and driving ponies - doing quite a bit of local shows in dressage and cross country jumping. This mare, the first time - they figured it out in the pasture up in Montana before we came to NC, right after she lost her 1/2 arab colt at birth. Had to have been her foal heat (which I totally missed). The 2nd time we bred her and didn't yet have a ramp - R U ready???? She was stood in front of our stock trailer and held. He was standing in the horse trailer and LEARNED to keep his feet ON THE FLOOR while doing "his job". We were "watched over" and never had an accident or a problem - she was covered 2x this way and 30 days later was vet checked in foal... The 3rd, 4th & 5th times, we'd built breeding stocks and the mares were cross tied in them for breeding, a lowered gate was used behind them and the ramp with a 8" lip was used to keep his hind feet on the ramp while mounted (for the 14.3 arab and other larger mares, we also put 2 4x6's under the ramp to raise it).
We bred one other part arab mare (14.2 - sire and dam both larger) in front of the open stock trailer w/ similar results. That first colt matured at 13.2 hh. The filly matured at 13.1.
A 12 hh Hackney mare produced 5 fillies as like as peas in a pod EXCEPT for height. Both the 1st and last foals stayed pretty tiny at 47". The middle 3 - matured between 12.1 & 12.2 1/2". Guess that's close enough to do a study??
We've had a different experience with the last mare - a 13.1 hh arab/hackney pony cross. She produced a filly that I believe should have matured at 12. 2. Not sure she did... The owners could care less how big/small she is and I havent been able to get a measurement back on her...
Enter our 2nd stallion - a very petite, 40" boy (10 hh). He has now sired 3 full siblings from this same mare - 2 while breeding her in the stocks (he isn't as thrilled with the "set up" and hates to have a "guiding hand") and once (this years' colt) figured it out in pasture (!!). We laugh about our unplanned "fun"... NICE colt! BUT these 3 are different in type and size. The first is a 3 yr old mare that is currently 45". Her yearling full brother, a gelding since April, is now almost 46" tall and is a more "husky" pony from a much younger age. The surprise colt looks to be the same size as last years colt - they are the same size at the same age marks. I believe they will make a nice driving pair of ponies - both built & move the same, look to be the same size - time will tell. I need to go back and measure their cannons to see where we are in regards to that measurement.
AND his purebred Shetland foals seem to be staying slightly smaller - we'll see (some look to qualify for AMHR hardship registration).
Whatever you decide for your mare's new "hubby", I'd love to know what you get. I've bred older mares and had it work well.